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Recreativo da Caála vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Girabola 2019

Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
FT
3 – 0
Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
2/14/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 10Estádio Mártires da Canhala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Recreativo da Caála66%
×Draw25%
Ferroviário do Huambo9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo da Caála
1.52
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.38

Recreativo da Caála creates 300% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 27 away

creates per match

Recreativo da Caála
1.15
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.41

allows per match

Recreativo da Caála
0.35
Ferroviário do Huambo
1.89

finishing

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par
Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo da Caála ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Recreativo da Caála or draw
91%
Recreativo da Caála or Ferroviário do Huambo
75%
Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo
34%

Winning margin

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
36%
Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
78%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
45%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
20%
Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
32%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
6%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
88%
Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo da Caála at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.35 · 48 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo da Caála attack 1.15 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + Recreativo da Caála defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Recreativo da Caála scores more
66%
level
25%
Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
9%

Recreativo da Caála at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Recreativo da Caála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Recreativo da Caála 3–0 Ferroviário do Huambo

Recreativo da Caála beat Ferroviário do Huambo 3-0 in Girabola on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Mártires da Canhala in Caála.