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Ferroviário do Huambo vs Recreativo da Caála — Girabola 2019

Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
CANC
14:00
Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
5/3/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ferroviário do Huambo25%
×Draw30%
Recreativo da Caála45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviário do Huambo
0.81
Recreativo da Caála
1.19

Recreativo da Caála creates 47% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 50 away

creates per match

Ferroviário do Huambo
0.38
Recreativo da Caála
0.74

allows per match

Ferroviário do Huambo
1.65
Recreativo da Caála
1.24

finishing

Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par
Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviário do Huambo ↓

Recreativo da Caála →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ferroviário do Huambo or draw
55%
Ferroviário do Huambo or Recreativo da Caála
70%
Draw or Recreativo da Caála
75%

Winning margin

Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
8%
Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
56%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
19%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
5%
Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
70%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
33%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
36%
Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviário do Huambo at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.38 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.81

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.74 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
25%
level
30%
Recreativo da Caála scores more
45%

Recreativo da Caála at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Recreativo da Caála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ferroviário do Huambo host Recreativo da Caála

May 3, 2020: Ferroviário do Huambo take on Recreativo da Caála in Girabola. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.