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Recreativo da Caála vs ASA — Girabola 2019

Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
FT
2 – 0
ASA
ASA
10/21/2017GirabolaGirabola · Round 28Estádio Mártires da Canhala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Recreativo da Caála63%
×Draw29%
ASA8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo da Caála
1.29
ASA
0.28

Recreativo da Caála creates 361% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 9 away

creates per match

Recreativo da Caála
1.15
ASA
0.22

allows per match

Recreativo da Caála
0.35
ASA
1.44

finishing

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

82%No
  • No82
  • Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo da Caála ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–027%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (27%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Recreativo da Caála or draw
92%
Recreativo da Caála or ASA
71%
Draw or ASA
37%

Winning margin

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
31%
ASA wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
72%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
37%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
14%
ASA 1+ goals
24%
ASA 2+ goals
3%
ASA 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
89%
ASA (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
10%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo da Caála at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.35 · 48 matches

ASA away — creates 0.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo da Caála attack 1.15 + ASA defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

ASA attack 0.22 + Recreativo da Caála defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Recreativo da Caála scores more
63%
level
29%
ASA scores more
8%

Recreativo da Caála at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Recreativo da Caála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo da Caála vs ASA

Recreativo da Caála beat ASA 2-0 in Girabola on October 21, 2017.

The match was played at Estádio Mártires da Canhala in Caála.