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ASA vs Recreativo da Caála — Girabola 2019

ASA
ASA
FT
1 – 2
Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
5/7/2017GirabolaGirabola · Round 13Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ASA31%
×Draw30%
Recreativo da Caála40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASA
0.98
Recreativo da Caála
1.15

Recreativo da Caála creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 50 away

creates per match

ASA
0.73
Recreativo da Caála
0.74

allows per match

ASA
1.55
Recreativo da Caála
1.24

finishing

ASA+0.00on par
Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Recreativo da Caála →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ASA or draw
60%
ASA or Recreativo da Caála
70%
Draw or Recreativo da Caála
69%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+
11%
Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals
62%
ASA 2+ goals
26%
ASA 3+ goals
8%
Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
68%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
32%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)
44%
Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 0.73 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.74 + ASA defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ASA scores more
31%
level
30%
Recreativo da Caála scores more
40%

Recreativo da Caála at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Recreativo da Caála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASA vs Recreativo da Caála

Recreativo da Caála beat ASA 2-1 in Girabola on May 7, 2017.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.