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Recolta Gheorghe Doja vs Înainte Modelu — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Înainte Modelu
Înainte Modelu
11/1/2025Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadionul Comunal Gheorghe Doja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja48%
×Draw22%
Înainte Modelu30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.90
Înainte Modelu
1.47

Recolta Gheorghe Doja creates 29% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 62 away

creates per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.94
Înainte Modelu
1.08

allows per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.86
Înainte Modelu
1.85

finishing

Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par
Înainte Modelu+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recolta Gheorghe Doja ↓

Înainte Modelu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Recolta Gheorghe Doja or draw
70%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja or Înainte Modelu
78%
Draw or Înainte Modelu
52%

Winning margin

Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+
27%
Înainte Modelu wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals
85%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals
56%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals
29%
Înainte Modelu 1+ goals
77%
Înainte Modelu 2+ goals
43%
Înainte Modelu 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)
61%
Înainte Modelu (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

Înainte Modelu away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.94 + Înainte Modelu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.90

Înainte Modelu attack 1.08 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more
48%
level
22%
Înainte Modelu scores more
30%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Recolta Gheorghe Doja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: Recolta Gheorghe Doja 0–3 Înainte Modelu

Înainte Modelu beat Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Gheorghe Doja in Gheorghe Doja.