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Înainte Modelu vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Înainte Modelu
Înainte Modelu
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
9/27/2024Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadionul Vasile Enache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Înainte Modelu53%
×Draw21%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Înainte Modelu
2.07
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.39

Înainte Modelu creates 49% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 64 away

creates per match

Înainte Modelu
2.08
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.45

allows per match

Înainte Modelu
1.33
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
2.06

finishing

Înainte Modelu+0.00on par
Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Înainte Modelu ↓

Recolta Gheorghe Doja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Înainte Modelu or draw
74%
Înainte Modelu or Recolta Gheorghe Doja
79%
Draw or Recolta Gheorghe Doja
47%

Winning margin

Înainte Modelu wins by 2+
31%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Înainte Modelu 1+ goals
87%
Înainte Modelu 2+ goals
61%
Înainte Modelu 3+ goals
34%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals
75%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals
40%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Înainte Modelu (draw refunded)
67%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Înainte Modelu at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 61 matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.06 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Înainte Modelu attack 2.08 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.07

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.45 + Înainte Modelu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Înainte Modelu scores more
53%
level
21%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more
26%

Înainte Modelu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Înainte Modelu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Înainte Modelu vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja

Înainte Modelu beat Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Vasile Enache in Modelu.