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Recolta Gheorghe Doja vs Dunarea Calarasi — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
9/13/2025Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadionul Comunal Gheorghe Doja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja40%
×Draw23%
Dunarea Calarasi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.71
Dunarea Calarasi
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 52 away

creates per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.94
Dunarea Calarasi
1.38

allows per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.86
Dunarea Calarasi
1.48

finishing

Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par
Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recolta Gheorghe Doja ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Recolta Gheorghe Doja or draw
63%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja or Dunarea Calarasi
77%
Draw or Dunarea Calarasi
60%

Winning margin

Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+
21%
Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals
82%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals
51%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals
24%
Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
80%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
48%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)
52%
Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.94 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.38 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more
40%
level
23%
Dunarea Calarasi scores more
37%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Recolta Gheorghe Doja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recolta Gheorghe Doja vs Dunarea Calarasi

Dunarea Calarasi beat Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Gheorghe Doja in Gheorghe Doja.