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Dunarea Calarasi vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
11/22/2025Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadionul Ion Comsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi54%
×Draw22%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunarea Calarasi
1.98
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.25

Dunarea Calarasi creates 58% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi
1.90
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.45

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi
1.06
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
2.06

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par
Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Recolta Gheorghe Doja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw
76%
Dunarea Calarasi or Recolta Gheorghe Doja
78%
Draw or Recolta Gheorghe Doja
46%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
32%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
86%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
59%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
31%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals
71%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals
36%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
69%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.06 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.90 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.98

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.45 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more
54%
level
22%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more
24%

Dunarea Calarasi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: Dunarea Calarasi 1–0 Recolta Gheorghe Doja

Dunarea Calarasi beat Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Comsa in Calarasi.