Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2–5 CS Afumati

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

CS Afumati

9/23/2023

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadionul Comunal Gheorghe Doja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja21%

×Draw20%

CS Afumati60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recolta Gheorghe DojaExpected goals in this matchCS Afumati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

2.31

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

1.30

CS Afumati

2.31

CS Afumati creates 78% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 35 away

1.94

creates per match

2.77

1.86

allows per match

0.66

creates per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

1.94

CS Afumati

2.77

allows per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

1.86

CS Afumati

0.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par

CS Afumati+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recolta Gheorghe Doja ↓

CS Afumati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Recolta Gheorghe Doja or draw

40%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja or CS Afumati

80%

Draw or CS Afumati

79%

Winning margin

Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+

8%

CS Afumati wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals

73%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals

37%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals

14%

CS Afumati 1+ goals

90%

CS Afumati 2+ goals

67%

CS Afumati 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)

26%

CS Afumati (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

CS Afumati away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.94 + CS Afumati defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.30

CS Afumati attack 2.77 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more

21%

level

20%

CS Afumati scores more

60%

CS Afumati at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff