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CS Afumati vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

CS Afumati
CS Afumati
FT
1 – 2
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
9/24/2022Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadionul Afumaţi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

CS Afumati68%
×Draw18%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Afumati
2.46
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.06

CS Afumati creates 132% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 64 away

creates per match

CS Afumati
2.86
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.45

allows per match

CS Afumati
0.68
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
2.06

finishing

CS Afumati+0.00on par
Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Afumati ↓

Recolta Gheorghe Doja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

CS Afumati or draw
85%
CS Afumati or Recolta Gheorghe Doja
82%
Draw or Recolta Gheorghe Doja
32%

Winning margin

CS Afumati wins by 2+
45%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CS Afumati 1+ goals
91%
CS Afumati 2+ goals
70%
CS Afumati 3+ goals
44%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals
65%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals
29%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CS Afumati (draw refunded)
82%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Afumati at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.06 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Afumati attack 2.86 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.46

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.45 + CS Afumati defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

CS Afumati scores more
68%
level
18%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more
15%

CS Afumati at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Afumati vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja

Recolta Gheorghe Doja beat CS Afumati 2-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Afumaţi in Afumaţi.