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Recolta Gheorghe Doja vs Axiopolis — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
Axiopolis
Axiopolis
4/4/2026Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja44%
×Draw21%
Axiopolis34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
2.03
Axiopolis
1.77

Recolta Gheorghe Doja creates 15% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 52 away

creates per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.94
Axiopolis
1.69

allows per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.86
Axiopolis
2.12

finishing

Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par
Axiopolis+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recolta Gheorghe Doja ↓

Axiopolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Recolta Gheorghe Doja or draw
66%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja or Axiopolis
79%
Draw or Axiopolis
56%

Winning margin

Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+
25%
Axiopolis wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals
87%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals
60%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals
33%
Axiopolis 1+ goals
83%
Axiopolis 2+ goals
53%
Axiopolis 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)
56%
Axiopolis (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

Axiopolis away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.94 + Axiopolis defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.03

Axiopolis attack 1.69 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more
44%
level
21%
Axiopolis scores more
34%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Recolta Gheorghe Doja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recolta Gheorghe Doja vs Axiopolis

Axiopolis beat Recolta Gheorghe Doja 7-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on April 4, 2026.