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Axiopolis vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Axiopolis
Axiopolis
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
11/23/2024Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 13Stadionul Ideal Cernavodă

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Axiopolis48%
×Draw22%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Axiopolis
1.98
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.52

Axiopolis creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 64 away

creates per match

Axiopolis
1.90
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
1.45

allows per match

Axiopolis
1.59
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
2.06

finishing

Axiopolis+0.00on par
Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Axiopolis ↓

Recolta Gheorghe Doja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Axiopolis or draw
70%
Axiopolis or Recolta Gheorghe Doja
78%
Draw or Recolta Gheorghe Doja
52%

Winning margin

Axiopolis wins by 2+
27%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Axiopolis 1+ goals
86%
Axiopolis 2+ goals
59%
Axiopolis 3+ goals
31%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals
78%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals
45%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Axiopolis (draw refunded)
62%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Axiopolis at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.06 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Axiopolis attack 1.90 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.98

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.45 + Axiopolis defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Axiopolis scores more
48%
level
22%
Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more
30%

Axiopolis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Axiopolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: Axiopolis 3–3 Recolta Gheorghe Doja

Axiopolis and Recolta Gheorghe Doja drew 3-3 in Liga III - Serie 3 on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Ideal Cernavodă in Cernavodă.