Recoleta 2–3 General Velásquez: Result & Stats

Recoleta

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

General Velásquez

D. Espinoza 87'

G. Tapia 34'

M. Pérez 90+1'

J. Abarca 74'

M. Villablanca 16'

9/26/2021

Segunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal de Recoleta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Recoleta47%

×Draw24%

General Velásquez29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RecoletaExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.25

Recoleta

1.66

General Velásquez

1.25

Recoleta creates 33% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 77 away

2.00

creates per match

1.06

1.45

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Recoleta

2.00

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Recoleta

1.45

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recoleta+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recoleta ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Recoleta or draw

71%

Recoleta or General Velásquez

76%

Draw or General Velásquez

53%

Winning margin

Recoleta wins by 2+

25%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Recoleta 1+ goals

81%

Recoleta 2+ goals

49%

Recoleta 3+ goals

23%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

71%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

36%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Recoleta (draw refunded)

62%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recoleta at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recoleta attack 2.00 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Recoleta defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Recoleta scores more

47%

level

24%

General Velásquez scores more

29%

Recoleta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Villablanca

23'

A. Rojas← R. Sánchez

34'

G. Tapia

39'

M. Ormeno

39'

M. Ormeno

46'

D. Espinoza← D. Núñez

46'

W. Acuña← N. Solabarrieta

60'

M. Pérez← P. Troncoso

60'

M. Sandoval← R. Riquelme

71'

F. Durán← T. Pino

71'

M. Segura← M. Villablanca

74'

J. Abarca

78'

E. Cossio← R. Segovia

87'

D. Espinoza

89'

D. Nunez

90+1'

M. Pérez

Recoleta

General

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Nuñez

23'▲A. Rojas←▼R. Sánchez

46'▲D. Espinoza←▼D. Núñez

46'▲W. Acuña←▼N. Solabarrieta

Recoleta substitutes

RojasEspinozaAcuñaRojasMolinaLewSuárez

Manager: C. Bustamante

60'▲M. Pérez←▼P. Troncoso

60'▲M. Sandoval←▼R. Riquelme

71'▲F. Durán←▼T. Pino

71'▲M. Segura←▼M. Villablanca

78'▲E. Cossio←▼R. Segovia

General Velásquez substitutes

PérezSandovalDuránSeguraCossioAbarcaTobar