General Velásquez 1–2 Recoleta: Result & Stats

General Velásquez

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Recoleta

S. Molina 63'

G. Tapia 77', 42'

1/21/2021

Segunda División · Round 20Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

General Velásquez35%

×Draw26%

Recoleta39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General VelásquezExpected goals in this matchRecoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.38

General Velásquez

1.30

Recoleta

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 22 away

1.43

creates per match

1.73

1.03

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

General Velásquez

1.43

Recoleta

1.73

allows per match

General Velásquez

1.03

Recoleta

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw

61%

General Velásquez or Recoleta

74%

Draw or Recoleta

65%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+

15%

Recoleta wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals

73%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

37%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

14%

Recoleta 1+ goals

75%

Recoleta 2+ goals

40%

Recoleta 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

48%

Recoleta (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Recoleta away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Recoleta defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Recoleta attack 1.73 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

General Velásquez scores more

35%

level

26%

Recoleta scores more

39%

Recoleta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

G. Tapia

46'

A. Jara← L. Martínez

63'

S. Molina

73'

J. Alegría← M. Villablanca

77'

G. Tapia

80'

D. Ganga← D. Núñez

85'

L. Maldonado← G. Tapia

General

Recoleta

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Riffo

73'▲J. Alegría←▼M. Villablanca

General Velásquez substitutes

Alegría

Manager: F. Nuñez

46'▲A. Jara←▼L. Martínez

80'▲D. Ganga←▼D. Núñez

85'▲L. Maldonado←▼G. Tapia

Recoleta substitutes

JaraGangaMaldonado