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Recoleta vs Curico Unido — Primera B 2026

Recoleta
Recoleta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Curico Unido
Curico Unido
3/23/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 5Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Recoleta43%
×Draw27%
Curico Unido30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recoleta
1.40
Curico Unido
1.13

Recoleta creates 24% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 38 away

creates per match

Recoleta
1.34
Curico Unido
0.95

allows per match

Recoleta
1.31
Curico Unido
1.45

finishing

Recoleta+0.00on par
Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recoleta ↓

Curico Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Recoleta or draw
70%
Recoleta or Curico Unido
73%
Draw or Curico Unido
57%

Winning margin

Recoleta wins by 2+
20%
Curico Unido wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Recoleta 1+ goals
75%
Recoleta 2+ goals
41%
Recoleta 3+ goals
17%
Curico Unido 1+ goals
68%
Curico Unido 2+ goals
31%
Curico Unido 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Recoleta (draw refunded)
59%
Curico Unido (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recoleta at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 71 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recoleta attack 1.34 + Curico Unido defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Curico Unido attack 0.95 + Recoleta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Recoleta scores more
43%
level
27%
Curico Unido scores more
30%

Recoleta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recoleta vs Curico Unido

Recoleta beat Curico Unido 2-1 in Primera B on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.