Curico Unido 1–1 Recoleta: Result & Stats

Curico Unido

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Recoleta

B. Guisolfo 84'

B. Valdes 56'

6/14/2025

Primera B · Round 14Estadio Bicentenario La Granja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Curico Unido38%

×Draw28%

Recoleta34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Curico UnidoExpected goals in this matchRecoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.13

Curico Unido

1.20

Recoleta

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

1.11

creates per match

0.94

1.32

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Curico Unido

1.11

Recoleta

0.94

allows per match

Curico Unido

1.32

Recoleta

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Curico Unido+0.00on par

Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curico Unido ↓

Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Curico Unido or draw

66%

Curico Unido or Recoleta

72%

Draw or Recoleta

62%

Winning margin

Curico Unido wins by 2+

16%

Recoleta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Curico Unido 1+ goals

70%

Curico Unido 2+ goals

34%

Curico Unido 3+ goals

12%

Recoleta 1+ goals

68%

Recoleta 2+ goals

31%

Recoleta 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Curico Unido (draw refunded)

52%

Recoleta (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curico Unido at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

Recoleta away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curico Unido attack 1.11 + Recoleta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Recoleta attack 0.94 + Curico Unido defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Curico Unido scores more

38%

level

28%

Recoleta scores more

34%

Curico Unido at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Curico Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

A. Hernandez

46'

N. Fernandez← M. Retamal

46'

I. Aliaga← C. Bustamante

46'

D. Salazar← V. Vasquez

46'

I. Lemmo← O. Salinas Aguilar

50'

N. Carvajal

56'

B. Valdes

60'

N. Barrios← C. Herrera

72'

C. Navarro← B. Valdes

75'

76'

76'

77'

77'

F. Ortiz← J. Gonzalez

78'

79'

81'

N. Barrios

81'

F. Alarcon← M. Arguinarena

84'

B. Guisolfo

90+2'

C. Marin← N. Carvajal

Curico

Recoleta

22

11

5

18

14

17

▼

Carvajal

8

Martin

10

▼

Arguinare

37

⚽

▼

Valdes

19

▼

Aguilar

26

▼

Vasquez

25

Munoz

14

▼

17

15

19

4

⚽

Guisolfo

20

▼

Herrera

10

Rojas

8

Leiva

28

▼

Retamal

13

▼

Bustamant

Manager: Emiliano Eduardo Astorga Lobos

46'▲N. Fernandez←▼M. Retamal

46'▲I. Aliaga←▼C. Bustamante

60'▲N. Barrios←▼C. Herrera

77'▲F. Ortiz←▼J. Gonzalez

Curico Unido substitutes

1Vergara7Fernandez9Aliaga18Ortiz21Ormazabal23Barrios24Saez

46'▲D. Salazar←▼V. Vasquez

46'▲I. Lemmo←▼O. Salinas Aguilar

72'▲C. Navarro←▼B. Valdes

81'▲F. Alarcon←▼M. Arguinarena

90+2'▲C. Marin←▼N. Carvajal

Recoleta substitutes

1Kirkman12Alvarado21Marin23Navarro16Salazar3Alarcon20Lemmo

Primera B: Curico Unido 1–1 Recoleta

Curico Unido and Recoleta drew 1-1 in Primera B on June 14, 2025.

Goals: B. Valdes (56'), B. Guisolfo (84').

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Molina.

Curico Unido vs Recoleta — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Curico Unido 1–1 Recoleta