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Real vs Praiense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Real
Real
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Praiense
Praiense
2/28/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 18Estádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Real57%
×Draw26%
Praiense18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real
1.54
Praiense
0.73

Real creates 111% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Real
1.45
Praiense
0.73

allows per match

Real
0.73
Praiense
1.64

finishing

Real+0.00on par
Praiense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real ↓

Praiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real or draw
82%
Real or Praiense
74%
Draw or Praiense
43%

Winning margin

Real wins by 2+
30%
Praiense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real 1+ goals
79%
Real 2+ goals
45%
Real 3+ goals
20%
Praiense 1+ goals
52%
Praiense 2+ goals
17%
Praiense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real (draw refunded)
76%
Praiense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Praiense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real attack 1.45 + Praiense defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Praiense attack 0.73 + Real defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real scores more
57%
level
26%
Praiense scores more
18%

Real at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Real 3–1 Praiense

Real beat Praiense 3-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Real SC in Queluz.