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Praiense vs Real — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Praiense
Praiense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real
Real
11/29/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 7Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Praiense49%
×Draw27%
Real25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praiense
1.46
Real
0.95

Praiense creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Praiense
1.55
Real
1.45

allows per match

Praiense
0.45
Real
1.36

finishing

Praiense+0.00on par
Real+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praiense ↓

Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Praiense or draw
75%
Praiense or Real
73%
Draw or Real
51%

Winning margin

Praiense wins by 2+
24%
Real wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Praiense 1+ goals
77%
Praiense 2+ goals
43%
Praiense 3+ goals
18%
Real 1+ goals
61%
Real 2+ goals
25%
Real 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Praiense (draw refunded)
67%
Real (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praiense at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Real away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praiense attack 1.55 + Real defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real attack 1.45 + Praiense defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Praiense scores more
49%
level
27%
Real scores more
25%

Praiense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Praiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Praiense vs Real

Praiense beat Real 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória in Praia da Vitória, Açores.