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Real vs Estrela — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Real
Real
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Estrela
Estrela
10/17/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 3Estádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Real38%
×Draw30%
Estrela31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real
1.09
Estrela
0.95

Real creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Real
1.45
Estrela
1.18

allows per match

Real
0.73
Estrela
0.73

finishing

Real+0.00on par
Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real or draw
69%
Real or Estrela
70%
Draw or Estrela
62%

Winning margin

Real wins by 2+
16%
Estrela wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real 1+ goals
66%
Real 2+ goals
30%
Real 3+ goals
10%
Estrela 1+ goals
61%
Estrela 2+ goals
25%
Estrela 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real (draw refunded)
55%
Estrela (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real attack 1.45 + Estrela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.09

Estrela attack 1.18 + Real defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real scores more
38%
level
30%
Estrela scores more
31%

Real at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Real 1–1 Estrela

Real and Estrela drew 1-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Real SC in Queluz.