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Estrela vs Real — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Estrela
Estrela
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real
Real
1/29/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 14Estádio José Gomes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Estrela54%
×Draw25%
Real21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrela
1.64
Real
0.91

Estrela creates 80% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Estrela
1.91
Real
1.45

allows per match

Estrela
0.36
Real
1.36

finishing

Estrela+0.00on par
Real+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela ↓

Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estrela or draw
79%
Estrela or Real
75%
Draw or Real
46%

Winning margin

Estrela wins by 2+
29%
Real wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Estrela 1+ goals
81%
Estrela 2+ goals
49%
Estrela 3+ goals
23%
Real 1+ goals
60%
Real 2+ goals
23%
Real 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Estrela (draw refunded)
72%
Real (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

Real away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela attack 1.91 + Real defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.64

Real attack 1.45 + Estrela defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Estrela scores more
54%
level
25%
Real scores more
21%

Estrela at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Estrela 2–1 Real

Estrela beat Real 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on January 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio José Gomes in Amadora.