Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Valladolid II vs Haro Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
11/2/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II58%
×Draw24%
Haro Deportivo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Valladolid II
1.69
Haro Deportivo
0.80

Real Valladolid II creates 111% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Real Valladolid II
2.07
Haro Deportivo
0.89

allows per match

Real Valladolid II
0.71
Haro Deportivo
1.32

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw
82%
Real Valladolid II or Haro Deportivo
76%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
42%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
33%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
82%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
50%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
24%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
55%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
19%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
77%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.69

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more
58%
level
24%
Haro Deportivo scores more
18%

Real Valladolid II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Valladolid II 1–1 Haro Deportivo

Real Valladolid II and Haro Deportivo drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.