Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Haro Deportivo vs Real Valladolid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
CANC
00:00
Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
3/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Municipal El Mazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Haro Deportivo40%
×Draw29%
Real Valladolid II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haro Deportivo
1.21
Real Valladolid II
1.02

Haro Deportivo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

creates per match

Haro Deportivo
1.12
Real Valladolid II
1.00

allows per match

Haro Deportivo
1.04
Real Valladolid II
1.29

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par
Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Real Valladolid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw
69%
Haro Deportivo or Real Valladolid II
71%
Draw or Real Valladolid II
60%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
17%
Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
70%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
34%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
12%
Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
64%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
27%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
57%
Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.12 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Valladolid II attack 1.00 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more
40%
level
29%
Real Valladolid II scores more
31%

Haro Deportivo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Haro Deportivo host Real Valladolid II

March 22, 2020: Haro Deportivo take on Real Valladolid II in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Haro Deportivo host Real Valladolid II at Estadio Municipal El Mazo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.