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Real Valladolid II vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
CANC
18:00
Extremadura
Extremadura
3/26/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Real Valladolid II51%
×Draw24%
Extremadura25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Valladolid II
1.73
Extremadura
1.15

Real Valladolid II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 12 away

creates per match

Real Valladolid II
1.20
Extremadura
0.83

allows per match

Real Valladolid II
1.47
Extremadura
2.25

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw
75%
Real Valladolid II or Extremadura
76%
Draw or Extremadura
49%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
28%
Extremadura wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
82%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
52%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
25%
Extremadura 1+ goals
68%
Extremadura 2+ goals
32%
Extremadura 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
67%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Extremadura away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Extremadura defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Extremadura attack 0.83 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more
51%
level
24%
Extremadura scores more
25%

Real Valladolid II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Valladolid II host Extremadura

March 26, 2022: Real Valladolid II take on Extremadura in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Valladolid II host Extremadura at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.