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Extremadura vs Real Valladolid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
10/9/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura32%
×Draw25%
Real Valladolid II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.31
Real Valladolid II
1.58

Real Valladolid II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 31 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.00
Real Valladolid II
1.16

allows per match

Extremadura
2.00
Real Valladolid II
1.61

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Real Valladolid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
56%
Extremadura or Real Valladolid II
75%
Draw or Real Valladolid II
68%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
14%
Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
73%
Extremadura 2+ goals
38%
Extremadura 3+ goals
14%
Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
79%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
47%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
42%
Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Real Valladolid II attack 1.16 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Extremadura scores more
32%
level
25%
Real Valladolid II scores more
44%

Real Valladolid II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Extremadura vs Real Valladolid II

Extremadura beat Real Valladolid II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.