Real Valladolid II 1–0 Deportivo Alavés II

Real Valladolid II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Alavés II

Miguel De la Fuente 57'

10/19/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II66%

×Draw21%

Deportivo Alavés II13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.71

Real Valladolid II

1.93

Deportivo Alavés II

0.71

Real Valladolid II creates 172% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

2.07

creates per match

0.71

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

2.07

Deportivo Alavés II

0.71

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

0.71

Deportivo Alavés II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

87%

Real Valladolid II or Deportivo Alavés II

79%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés II

34%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

40%

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

85%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

57%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

30%

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

51%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

16%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

84%

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.93

Deportivo Alavés II attack 0.71 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

66%

level

21%

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

13%

Real Valladolid II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

José Rodríguez← Iñigo Arzuaga

57'

Paulino← Oier Sarriegi

57'

Miguel De la Fuente

69'

Óscar González← Miguel De la Fuente

77'

Iñaki Elejalde← Jorge Bengoetxea

83'

G. Mancuso← Kike Pérez

89'

Javier Aparicio← Carlos Doncel

Real

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Fuente

García

Manager: Baraja

69'▲Óscar González←▼Miguel De la Fuente

83'▲G. Mancuso←▼Kike Pérez

89'▲Javier Aparicio←▼Carlos Doncel

Real Valladolid II substitutes

GonzálezMancusoAparicioSeguraSoberónMuñozPérez

Manager: Iñaki Alonso

51'▲José Rodríguez←▼Iñigo Arzuaga

57'▲Paulino←▼Oier Sarriegi

77'▲Iñaki Elejalde←▼Jorge Bengoetxea

Deportivo Alavés II substitutes

RodríguezPaulinoElejaldeOrtegaÁlvarezFérrizValero

Match Recap: Real Valladolid II vs Deportivo Alavés II

Real Valladolid II beat Deportivo Alavés II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 19, 2019.

Goals: Miguel De la Fuente (57').

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Deportivo Alavés II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Valladolid II vs Deportivo Alavés II