Deportivo Alavés II 1–1 Real Valladolid II

Deportivo Alavés II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Valladolid II

Pablo Álvarez 35'

Raúl Uche 54'

3/8/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II44%

×Draw29%

Real Valladolid II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés IIExpected goals in this matchReal Valladolid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.91

Deportivo Alavés II

1.25

Real Valladolid II

0.91

Deportivo Alavés II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

1.21

creates per match

1.00

0.82

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II

1.21

Real Valladolid II

1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II

0.82

Real Valladolid II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Real Valladolid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw

73%

Deportivo Alavés II or Real Valladolid II

71%

Draw or Real Valladolid II

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

20%

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

13%

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

60%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

23%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

62%

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.21 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Valladolid II attack 1.00 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

44%

level

29%

Real Valladolid II scores more

27%

Deportivo Alavés II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Pablo Álvarez

54'

Raúl Uche

64'

Oier Sarriegi← A. Mahmoud

73'

S. Plaza← Kuki

77'

Fran Álvarez← Carlos Doncel

78'

Iñaki Elejalde← A. Lupu

83'

Pablo Muñoz← S. Plaza

86'

Antonio Perera← Pablo Álvarez

Deportivo

Real

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iñaki Alonso

64'▲Oier Sarriegi←▼A. Mahmoud

78'▲Iñaki Elejalde←▼A. Lupu

86'▲Antonio Perera←▼Pablo Álvarez

Deportivo Alavés II substitutes

SarriegiElejaldePereraGonzálezMartínezFérrizRopero

Manager: Baraja

73'▲S. Plaza←▼Kuki

77'▲Fran Álvarez←▼Carlos Doncel

83'▲Pablo Muñoz←▼S. Plaza

Real Valladolid II substitutes

PlazaÁlvarezMuñozCasadoAparicioJoséCadaveira

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés II vs Real Valladolid II

Deportivo Alavés II and Real Valladolid II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 8, 2020.

Goals: Pablo Álvarez (35'), Raúl Uche (54').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Deportivo Alavés II vs Real Valladolid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés II vs Real Valladolid II