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Real Valladolid II vs Burgos — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burgos
Burgos
10/18/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Real Valladolid II31%
×Draw30%
Burgos40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Valladolid II
0.97
Burgos
1.15

Burgos creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 12 away

creates per match

Real Valladolid II
1.20
Burgos
0.83

allows per match

Real Valladolid II
1.47
Burgos
0.75

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par
Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw
60%
Real Valladolid II or Burgos
70%
Draw or Burgos
69%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
11%
Burgos wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
62%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
25%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
7%
Burgos 1+ goals
68%
Burgos 2+ goals
32%
Burgos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
43%
Burgos (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Burgos defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

Burgos attack 0.83 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more
31%
level
30%
Burgos scores more
40%

Burgos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Valladolid II vs Burgos

Real Valladolid II beat Burgos 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla in Valladolid.