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Real Valladolid II vs Burgos — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
CANC
00:00
Burgos
Burgos
4/12/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Valladolid II61%
×Draw22%
Burgos17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Valladolid II
1.84
Burgos
0.85

Real Valladolid II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Real Valladolid II
2.07
Burgos
1.00

allows per match

Real Valladolid II
0.71
Burgos
1.62

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par
Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw
83%
Real Valladolid II or Burgos
78%
Draw or Burgos
39%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
35%
Burgos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
84%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
55%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
28%
Burgos 1+ goals
57%
Burgos 2+ goals
21%
Burgos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
78%
Burgos (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Burgos defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.84

Burgos attack 1.00 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more
61%
level
22%
Burgos scores more
17%

Real Valladolid II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Valladolid II host Burgos

April 12, 2020: Real Valladolid II take on Burgos in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Valladolid II host Burgos at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.