Real Unión 2–1 Internacional de Madrid

Real Unión

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Internacional de Madrid

Alain Oyarzun 68'

Nacho Sánchez 9'

Rubén Ramos 18'

8/28/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Real Unión49%

×Draw27%

Internacional de Madrid25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.94

Real Unión

1.44

Internacional de Madrid

0.94

Real Unión creates 53% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 33 away

1.46

creates per match

0.76

1.11

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

75%

Real Unión or Internacional de Madrid

73%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

51%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

24%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

76%

Real Unión 2+ goals

42%

Real Unión 3+ goals

18%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

61%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

24%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

66%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Unión scores more

49%

level

27%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

25%

Real Unión at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

18'

21'

42'

47'

53'

54'

61'

Alberto Gil← Adrián Mance

61'

Pitu← Kenneth Soler

68'

Alain Oyarzun

69'

S. Brulmans← Álex Zambrano

72'

Elizondo← Alain Oyarzun

75'

Mikel Pradera← Carlos Bravo

78'

Álvaro Martín← David Barral

78'

Ramón Blázquez← Carlos Expósito

86'

Mario Capelete← Aitor Seguín

86'

Vivancos← Ekhi Senar

90+2'

Pitu

Real

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Oyarzun

⚽

Sánchez

▼

Bravo

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

72'▲Elizondo←▼Alain Oyarzun

75'▲Mikel Pradera←▼Carlos Bravo

86'▲Mario Capelete←▼Aitor Seguín

86'▲Vivancos←▼Ekhi Senar

Real Unión substitutes

ElizondoPraderaCapeleteVivancosBarbuTemenuzhkovIzaSantosNúñezArzuaga

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

61'▲Alberto Gil←▼Adrián Mance

61'▲Pitu←▼Kenneth Soler

69'▲S. Brulmans←▼Álex Zambrano

78'▲Álvaro Martín←▼David Barral

78'▲Ramón Blázquez←▼Carlos Expósito

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

GilPituBrulmansMartínBlázquezKolderiuBravoNandiReguera

Match Recap: Real Unión vs Internacional de Madrid

Real Unión beat Internacional de Madrid 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 28, 2021.

Goals: Nacho Sánchez (9'), Rubén Ramos (18'), Alain Oyarzun (68').

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.

Real Unión vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Unión vs Internacional de Madrid