Internacional de Madrid 2–0 Real Unión

Internacional de Madrid

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Unión

Rubén Ramos 42' (pen)

Álvaro Martín 22'

5/8/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid52%

×Draw24%

Real Unión24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.11

Internacional de Madrid

1.74

Real Unión

1.11

Internacional de Madrid creates 57% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 56 away

1.82

creates per match

0.98

1.24

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Real Unión

0.98

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Real Unión

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

76%

Internacional de Madrid or Real Unión

76%

Draw or Real Unión

48%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

29%

Real Unión wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

82%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

52%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

25%

Real Unión 1+ goals

67%

Real Unión 2+ goals

30%

Real Unión 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

68%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.74

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

52%

level

24%

Real Unión scores more

24%

Internacional de Madrid at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

29'

37'

42'

42'

Rubén RamosPenalty

59'

L. Marín← David Barral

60'

G. Kijera

69'

Chema Núñez← Alain Oyarzun

69'

Nacho Sánchez← Vivancos

69'

Quique Rivero← Mario Capelete

79'

Reguera← Álvaro Martín

80'

Elosegi← Miguel Santos

80'

K. Temenuzhkov← Aitor Seguín

83'

S. Brulmans← Rubén Ramos

90+5'

G. Elosegi

90+5'

A. Mancebo

Internacional

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Martín

▼

Barral

⚽

▼

Ramos

Blázquez

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

59'▲L. Marín←▼David Barral

79'▲Reguera←▼Álvaro Martín

83'▲S. Brulmans←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

MarínRegueraBrulmansMasogoSiuSolerBravoPituCamara

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

69'▲Chema Núñez←▼Alain Oyarzun

69'▲Nacho Sánchez←▼Vivancos

69'▲Quique Rivero←▼Mario Capelete

80'▲Elosegi←▼Miguel Santos

80'▲K. Temenuzhkov←▼Aitor Seguín

Real Unión substitutes

NúñezSánchezRiveroElosegiTemenuzhkovBarbuSenarEzkurdiaSequeira

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 2–0 Real Unión

Internacional de Madrid beat Real Unión 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 8, 2022.

Goals: Álvaro Martín (22'), Rubén Ramos (42' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 2–0 Real Unión