Real Unión 5–0 Gimnástica Segoviana: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Gimnástica Segoviana

Daniel Garrido 74'

Víctor San Bartolomé 61', 20'

Víctor Eimil 25'

Sergio Benito 11' (pen)

1/25/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Unión56%

×Draw23%

Gimnástica Segoviana21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchGimnástica Segoviana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.06

Real Unión

1.86

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.06

Real Unión creates 75% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.46

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.00

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Gimnástica Segoviana

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

79%

Real Unión or Gimnástica Segoviana

77%

Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana

44%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

32%

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

84%

Real Unión 2+ goals

55%

Real Unión 3+ goals

28%

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

65%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

29%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

72%

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.86

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.00 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Unión scores more

56%

level

23%

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

21%

Real Unión at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. Pascual

9'

F. Munroe

10'

Juan Silva

11'

Sergio BenitoPenalty

20'

Víctor San Bartolomé

23'

M. Olmedilla

25'

Víctor Eimil

28'

46'

Aitor Aranzabe← F. Munroe

46'

Joseca Márquez← Iñaki Olaortua

46'

Hugo Marcos← Hugo Díaz

46'

Rodrigo Ibañes← Berlanga

55'

Li Changyi← Pablo Carmona

61'

Víctor San Bartolomé

62'

Pedro Astray← Juan de la Mata

64'

69'

Daniel Garrido← Berto Cayarga

69'

Koldo Obieta← Víctor San Bartolomé

69'

Quique Rivero← Iker Bilbao

74'

Daniel Garrido

87'

H. Marcos

Real

Gimnástica

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Albert Carbó

46'▲Aitor Aranzabe←▼F. Munroe

46'▲Joseca Márquez←▼Iñaki Olaortua

69'▲Daniel Garrido←▼Berto Cayarga

69'▲Koldo Obieta←▼Víctor San Bartolomé

69'▲Quique Rivero←▼Iker Bilbao

Real Unión substitutes

AranzabeMárquezGarridoObietaRiveroGhusseinPérezIrazustaSantos

Manager: Ramsés

46'▲Hugo Marcos←▼Hugo Díaz

46'▲Rodrigo Ibañes←▼Berlanga

55'▲Li Changyi←▼Pablo Carmona

62'▲Pedro Astray←▼Juan de la Mata

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

MarcosIbañesChangyiAstrayMarotoDavoHernandoOliva