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Gimnástica Segoviana vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Unión
Real Unión
10/20/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana44%
×Draw26%
Real Unión31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.46
Real Unión
1.18

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.26
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.37
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw
69%
Gimnástica Segoviana or Real Unión
74%
Draw or Real Unión
56%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
21%
Real Unión wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
77%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
43%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
18%
Real Unión 1+ goals
69%
Real Unión 2+ goals
33%
Real Unión 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
59%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.26 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
44%
level
26%
Real Unión scores more
31%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Gimnástica Segoviana 3–0 Real Unión

Gimnástica Segoviana beat Real Unión 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.