Real Unión 3–0 Ebro: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ebro

Viguera 80', 55'

Mario Capelete 77'

4/18/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Unión44%

×Draw29%

Ebro27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchEbro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.88

Real Unión

1.21

Ebro

0.88

Real Unión creates 38% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

1.26

creates per match

0.69

1.07

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Real Unión

1.26

Ebro

0.69

allows per match

Real Unión

1.07

Ebro

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Ebro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

73%

Real Unión or Ebro

71%

Draw or Ebro

56%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

19%

Ebro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

70%

Real Unión 2+ goals

34%

Real Unión 3+ goals

12%

Ebro 1+ goals

59%

Ebro 2+ goals

22%

Ebro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

62%

Ebro (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Ebro away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.26 + Ebro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ebro attack 0.69 + Real Unión defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Unión scores more

44%

level

29%

Ebro scores more

27%

Real Unión at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Antonio Sanlúcar← Jairo Morillas

46'

Higón← Carlos José

55'

Viguera

70'

Álvaro Sánchez← Nando Quesada

70'

Sebas Moyano← José Ramón

76'

Fran Rivera← Sergio Llamas

76'

Jon Madrazo← Z. Thior

77'

80'

81'

83'

87'

Real

Ebro

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Viguera

⚽

Capelete

▼

Thior

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

76'▲Fran Rivera←▼Sergio Llamas

76'▲Jon Madrazo←▼Z. Thior

83'▲Jorge Galán←▼Viguera

87'▲Ariztimuño←▼Kijera

Real Unión substitutes

RiveraMadrazoGalánAriztimuñoBordaTemenuzhkovElizondoDonosoAiram

Manager: Manolo Sanlúcar

46'▲Antonio Sanlúcar←▼Jairo Morillas

46'▲Higón←▼Carlos José

70'▲Álvaro Sánchez←▼Nando Quesada

70'▲Sebas Moyano←▼José Ramón

81'▲Israel García←▼Carri

Ebro substitutes

SanlúcarHigónSánchezMoyanoGarcíaLoscosCharlezOzerinjauregi