Ebro 1–0 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Ebro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Unión

5/16/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Pedro Sancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ebro40%

×Draw30%

Real Unión31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EbroExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.98

Ebro

1.15

Real Unión

0.98

Ebro creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

1.15

creates per match

0.96

1.00

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Ebro

1.15

Real Unión

0.96

allows per match

Ebro

1.00

Real Unión

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ebro or draw

69%

Ebro or Real Unión

70%

Draw or Real Unión

60%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+

17%

Real Unión wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals

68%

Ebro 2+ goals

32%

Ebro 3+ goals

11%

Real Unión 1+ goals

62%

Real Unión 2+ goals

26%

Real Unión 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)

56%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.15 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Ebro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ebro scores more

40%

level

30%

Real Unión scores more

31%

Ebro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff