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Real Unión vs Deportivo La Coruna — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Unión
Real Unión
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
11/5/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Unión36%
×Draw29%
Deportivo La Coruna35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión
1.15
Deportivo La Coruna
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 68 away

creates per match

Real Unión
1.46
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

Real Unión
1.11
Deportivo La Coruna
0.84

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw
65%
Real Unión or Deportivo La Coruna
71%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
64%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+
15%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals
68%
Real Unión 2+ goals
32%
Real Unión 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)
51%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Real Unión scores more
36%
level
29%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
35%

Real Unión at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 3–0 Deportivo La Coruna

Real Unión beat Deportivo La Coruna 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.