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Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Unión
Real Unión
2/6/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna59%
×Draw24%
Real Unión17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruna
1.67
Real Unión
0.77

Deportivo La Coruna creates 117% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 56 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna
1.69
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna
0.57
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw
83%
Deportivo La Coruna or Real Unión
76%
Draw or Real Unión
41%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
33%
Real Unión wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
81%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
50%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
23%
Real Unión 1+ goals
54%
Real Unión 2+ goals
18%
Real Unión 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
78%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.57 · 68 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.69 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more
59%
level
24%
Real Unión scores more
17%

Deportivo La Coruna at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Unión

Real Unión beat Deportivo La Coruna 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Riazor in La Coruña.