Real Unión 3–2 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Celta de Vigo II

Berto Cayarga 84'

Sergio Benito 82'

Aitor Aranzabe 65'

E. Rodríguez 75'

Jordi Escobar 55' (pen)

9/1/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Unión41%

×Draw26%

Celta de Vigo II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.22

Real Unión

1.38

Celta de Vigo II

1.22

Real Unión creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 120 away

1.46

creates per match

1.33

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

67%

Real Unión or Celta de Vigo II

74%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

59%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

19%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

75%

Real Unión 2+ goals

40%

Real Unión 3+ goals

16%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

70%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

34%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

55%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Unión scores more

41%

level

26%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

33%

Real Unión at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Jordi EscobarPenalty

61'

Daniel Garrido← San Bartolomé

61'

Sergio Benito← Ander Vidorreta

65'

Aitor Aranzabe

70'

David Dela← Hugo Burcio

70'

Iván Garriel← Sergio Díez

74'

Asier Benito← Koldo Obieta

74'

Berto Cayarga← Aitor Aranzabe

75'

E. Rodríguez

76'

Johan Guedes← E. Rodríguez

82'

Sergio Benito

84'

Berto Cayarga

85'

Iñaki Olaortua← Iker Bilbao

86'

Iago Barreiros← Pablo Meixús

90+5'

M. Fernandez

Real

Celta

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Aranzabe

Manager: Mikel Llorente

61'▲Daniel Garrido←▼San Bartolomé

61'▲Sergio Benito←▼Ander Vidorreta

74'▲Asier Benito←▼Koldo Obieta

74'▲Berto Cayarga←▼Aitor Aranzabe

85'▲Iñaki Olaortua←▼Iker Bilbao

Real Unión substitutes

GarridoBenitoBenitoCayargaOlaortuaLozanoMunroeWrightTxustaEimilMosquera

Manager: Fredi

70'▲David Dela←▼Hugo Burcio

70'▲Iván Garriel←▼Sergio Díez

76'▲Johan Guedes←▼E. Rodríguez

86'▲Iago Barreiros←▼Pablo Meixús

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

DelaGarrielGuedesBarreirosAntañónArcosWauthierCondeDahmouniMarcosGavián

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 3–2 Celta de Vigo II

Real Unión beat Celta de Vigo II 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 1, 2024.

Goals: Jordi Escobar (55' pen), Aitor Aranzabe (65'), E. Rodríguez (75'), Sergio Benito (82'), Berto Cayarga (84').

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.

Real Unión vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 3–2 Celta de Vigo II