Celta de Vigo II 1–2 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Celta de Vigo II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Real Unión

Javi Gómez 87'

Mario Capelete 34'

Carlos Bravo 8'

1/26/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Celta de Vigo II52%

×Draw24%

Real Unión24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta de Vigo IIExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.05

Celta de Vigo II

1.67

Real Unión

1.05

Celta de Vigo II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 56 away

1.68

creates per match

0.98

1.12

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.68

Real Unión

0.98

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.12

Real Unión

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw

76%

Celta de Vigo II or Real Unión

76%

Draw or Real Unión

48%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

28%

Real Unión wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

81%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

50%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

23%

Real Unión 1+ goals

65%

Real Unión 2+ goals

28%

Real Unión 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

68%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more

52%

level

24%

Real Unión scores more

24%

Celta de Vigo II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

8'

13'

30'

34'

39'

61'

Cedric Teguia← Miguel Rodríguez

61'

Fabrício← Fernando Medrano

61'

Diego Pampín← Alfon González

61'

Javi Gómez← Gabri Veiga

70'

Chema Núñez← Sergio Llamas

72'

Carlos Beitia← T. Carrique

77'

Iván Pérez← Mario Capelete

83'

85'

Alain Oyarzun← Carlos Bravo

85'

K. Temenuzhkov← Aitor Seguín

87'

Javi Gómez

Celta

Real

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Capelete

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Onésimo

61'▲Cedric Teguia←▼Miguel Rodríguez

61'▲Fabrício←▼Fernando Medrano

61'▲Diego Pampín←▼Alfon González

61'▲Javi Gómez←▼Gabri Veiga

72'▲Carlos Beitia←▼T. Carrique

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

TeguiaFabrícioPampínGómezBeitiaLópezAlonsoCarrilloCamposLosada

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

70'▲Chema Núñez←▼Sergio Llamas

77'▲Iván Pérez←▼Mario Capelete

85'▲Alain Oyarzun←▼Carlos Bravo

85'▲K. Temenuzhkov←▼Aitor Seguín

Real Unión substitutes

NúñezPérezOyarzunTemenuzhkovElizondoElosegiRuizPraderaTxustaVivancos

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Celta de Vigo II 1–2 Real Unión

Real Unión beat Celta de Vigo II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 26, 2022.

Goals: Carlos Bravo (8'), Mario Capelete (34'), Javi Gómez (87').

The match was played at Abanca-Balaídos in Vigo.

Celta de Vigo II vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Celta de Vigo II 1–2 Real Unión