Real Unión 1–4 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Celta de Vigo II

Iván Pérez 23'

L. De León 90+3', 52'

Gabri Veiga 20'

Álex Martín 16'

9/10/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Unión41%

×Draw26%

Celta de Vigo II33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.22

Real Unión

1.38

Celta de Vigo II

1.22

Real Unión creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 120 away

1.46

creates per match

1.33

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

67%

Real Unión or Celta de Vigo II

74%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

59%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

19%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

75%

Real Unión 2+ goals

40%

Real Unión 3+ goals

16%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

70%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

34%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

55%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Unión scores more

41%

level

26%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

33%

Real Unión at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Álex Martín

20'

Gabri Veiga

23'

Iván Pérez

46'

Miguel Santos← Elosegi

52'

L. De León

63'

Mario Capelete← Aitor Seguín

63'

Mikel Pradera← D. Temenuzhkov

66'

68'

Alfon González← Cedric Teguia

68'

Javi Gómez← Iker Losada

72'

73'

I. Perez

73'

Chema Núñez← Elizondo

73'

Beobide← Alain Oyarzun

78'

Carlos Beitia← Gabri Veiga

81'

90+1'

Alex Martin

90+1'

Nacho

90+2'

90+3'

L. De León

Real

Celta

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

46'▲Miguel Santos←▼Elosegi

63'▲Mario Capelete←▼Aitor Seguín

63'▲Mikel Pradera←▼D. Temenuzhkov

73'▲Chema Núñez←▼Elizondo

73'▲Beobide←▼Alain Oyarzun

Real Unión substitutes

SantosCapeletePraderaNúñezBeobideBarbuSenarIzaLlamasVivancos

Manager: Onésimo

68'▲Alfon González←▼Cedric Teguia

68'▲Javi Gómez←▼Iker Losada

78'▲Carlos Beitia←▼Gabri Veiga

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

GonzálezGómezBeitiaCarrilloGermilRodríguezGarcíaConde

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 1–4 Celta de Vigo II

Celta de Vigo II beat Real Unión 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 10, 2021.

Goals: Álex Martín (16'), Gabri Veiga (20'), Iván Pérez (23'), L. De León (52', 90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.

Real Unión vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 1–4 Celta de Vigo II