Real Unión de Tenerife 1–4 Panadería Pulido

Real Unión de Tenerife

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Panadería Pulido

E. Pelaez 87'

Ale Gonzalez 68', 34', 10'

M. Sullivan 65'

12/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 13Campo de Fútbol de La Salud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Unión de Tenerife43%

×Draw28%

Panadería Pulido30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Unión de TenerifeExpected goals in this matchPanadería Pulido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.04

Real Unión de Tenerife

1.31

Panadería Pulido

1.04

Real Unión de Tenerife creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 94 away

1.41

creates per match

1.31

0.76

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Real Unión de Tenerife

1.41

Panadería Pulido

1.31

allows per match

Real Unión de Tenerife

0.76

Panadería Pulido

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión de Tenerife ↓

Panadería Pulido →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Unión de Tenerife or draw

70%

Real Unión de Tenerife or Panadería Pulido

72%

Draw or Panadería Pulido

57%

Winning margin

Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+

20%

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals

73%

Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals

38%

Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals

14%

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals

65%

Panadería Pulido 2+ goals

28%

Panadería Pulido 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)

59%

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Unión de Tenerife at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 1.41 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Unión de Tenerife scores more

43%

level

28%

Panadería Pulido scores more

30%

Real Unión de Tenerife at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Unión de Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

34'

65'

68'

87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff