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Panadería Pulido vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
M. Sullivan 87'
A. Perdomo 72'
H. Daniel 25' (OG)
4/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 30Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Panadería Pulido51%
×Draw28%
Real Unión de Tenerife21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panadería Pulido
1.35
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.76

Panadería Pulido creates 78% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

creates per match

Panadería Pulido
1.57
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.59

allows per match

Panadería Pulido
0.93
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.12

finishing

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par
Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panadería Pulido ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Panadería Pulido or draw
79%
Panadería Pulido or Real Unión de Tenerife
72%
Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife
49%

Winning margin

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
24%
Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
74%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
39%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
15%
Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
53%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
18%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
71%
Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panadería Pulido at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panadería Pulido attack 1.57 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + Panadería Pulido defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Panadería Pulido scores more
51%
level
28%
Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
21%

Panadería Pulido at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
H. DanielOwn goal
72'
A. Perdomo
87'
M. Sullivan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panadería Pulido vs Real Unión de Tenerife

Panadería Pulido beat Real Unión de Tenerife 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 11, 2026.

Goals: H. Daniel (25' o.g.), A. Perdomo (72'), M. Sullivan (87').

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo in Vega de San Mateo.