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Real Unión de Tenerife vs Las Palmas III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
D. Rodriguez 74'
4/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 31Campo de Fútbol de La Salud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Unión de Tenerife47%
×Draw28%
Las Palmas III25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.36
Las Palmas III
0.91

Real Unión de Tenerife creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 59 away

creates per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.41
Las Palmas III
1.05

allows per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
0.76
Las Palmas III
1.32

finishing

Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par
Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión de Tenerife ↓

Las Palmas III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Unión de Tenerife or draw
75%
Real Unión de Tenerife or Las Palmas III
72%
Draw or Las Palmas III
53%

Winning margin

Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
22%
Las Palmas III wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
74%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
39%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
16%
Las Palmas III 1+ goals
60%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
23%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
65%
Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión de Tenerife at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Las Palmas III away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 1.41 + Las Palmas III defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Las Palmas III attack 1.05 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
47%
level
28%
Las Palmas III scores more
25%

Real Unión de Tenerife at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Unión de Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
74'
D. Rodriguez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Real Unión de Tenerife 0–1 Las Palmas III

Las Palmas III beat Real Unión de Tenerife 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 18, 2026.

Goals: D. Rodriguez (74').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de La Salud in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.