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Las Palmas III vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
A. Hernandez 39'
Andriu 44'
1/13/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Las Palmas III54%
×Draw26%
Real Unión de Tenerife20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas III
1.48
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.78

Las Palmas III creates 90% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Las Palmas III
1.83
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.59

allows per match

Las Palmas III
0.98
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.12

finishing

Las Palmas III+0.00on par
Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas III ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Las Palmas III or draw
80%
Las Palmas III or Real Unión de Tenerife
74%
Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife
46%

Winning margin

Las Palmas III wins by 2+
28%
Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Las Palmas III 1+ goals
77%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
43%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
19%
Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
54%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
18%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
73%
Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas III at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas III attack 1.83 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + Las Palmas III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Las Palmas III scores more
54%
level
26%
Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
20%

Las Palmas III at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Las Palmas III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
A. Hernandez
44'
Andriu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Palmas III vs Real Unión de Tenerife

Las Palmas III and Real Unión de Tenerife drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 13, 2026.

Goals: A. Hernandez (39'), Andriu (44').

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.