Real Tomayapo 3–2 Real Oruro: Result & Stats

Real Tomayapo

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Real Oruro

M. G. Barbery Gil 83', 53', 35'

Gustavo Oliveira 45'

R. Cuellar Orti 6'

6/21/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Tomayapo54%

×Draw23%

Real Oruro23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TomayapoExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.15

Real Tomayapo

1.86

Real Oruro

1.15

Real Tomayapo creates 62% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

1.31

creates per match

1.37

0.92

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Real Tomayapo

1.31

Real Oruro

1.37

allows per match

Real Tomayapo

0.92

Real Oruro

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw

77%

Real Tomayapo or Real Oruro

77%

Draw or Real Oruro

46%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

31%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

84%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

55%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

28%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

68%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

32%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

70%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.31 + Real Oruro defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.86

Real Oruro attack 1.37 + Real Tomayapo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more

54%

level

23%

Real Oruro scores more

23%

Real Tomayapo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Corulo

Real Tomayapo · D

7.7

Match Events

6'

R. Cuellar Orti

12'

Rai LimaGoal cancelled

14'

Raúl Gómez

19'

Leandro Corulo

35'

M. G. Barbery Gil↳ D. Perez

40'

Santiago Cuiza

40'

Santiago CuizaRed card cancelled

45'

Gustavo Oliveira

46'

D. Ramallo← O. Siles

46'

B. Fernandez← J. Carrasco

52'

J. D. Ali Gutierrez← R. Gomez Saca

53'

M. Ortiz← R. Cuellar Orti

53'

M. G. Barbery Gil↳ D. Ramallo

59'

José Alí Gutiérrez

62'

W. Velasco← S. Zeballos

65'

L. Figueroa← R. Lima

65'

M. Tomianovic← D. Pinto

70'

Miyhel Ortiz

78'

J. Castillo← M. Aviles

81'

P. Moreira← L. Ali

82'

A. Alessandrini← R. Orihuela

83'

M. G. Barbery Gil↳ L. Corulo

84'

Mario Barbery

85'

Gustavo Ribeiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealReal

Overview

62%Possession38%

24Total Shots13

6Corners4

11Fouls8

Shots

24Total Shots13

10On Target6

10Off Target5

4Blocked2

20Inside Box5

4Outside Box8

Passing

62%Possession38%

438Total Passes266

357Accurate Passes180

82%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

Primera División: Real Tomayapo 3–2 Real Oruro

Real Tomayapo beat Real Oruro 3-2 in Primera División on June 21, 2025.

Goals: R. Cuellar Orti (6'), M. G. Barbery Gil (35', 53', 83'), Gustavo Oliveira (45').

Real Tomayapo controlled possession (62%) and registered 24 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio IV Centenario in Tarija.

Real Tomayapo vs Real Oruro — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Real Tomayapo 3–2 Real Oruro