Real Tomayapo 2–2 Atlético Palmaflor

Real Tomayapo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Palmaflor

9/12/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 17Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Real Tomayapo54%

×Draw24%

Atlético Palmaflor22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TomayapoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Palmaflor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.99

Real Tomayapo

1.71

Atlético Palmaflor

0.99

Real Tomayapo creates 73% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 66 away

1.37

creates per match

0.97

1.01

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Real Tomayapo

1.37

Atlético Palmaflor

0.97

allows per match

Real Tomayapo

1.01

Atlético Palmaflor

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Atlético Palmaflor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw

78%

Real Tomayapo or Atlético Palmaflor

76%

Draw or Atlético Palmaflor

46%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

30%

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

82%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

51%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

24%

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals

63%

Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals

26%

Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

71%

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Atlético Palmaflor away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.71

Atlético Palmaflor attack 0.97 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more

54%

level

24%

Atlético Palmaflor scores more

22%

Real Tomayapo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff