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Atlético Palmaflor vs Real Tomayapo — Primera División 2019

Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo
6/23/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 17Estadio Bicentenario de Villa Tunari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Atlético Palmaflor55%
×Draw24%
Real Tomayapo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Palmaflor
1.67
Real Tomayapo
0.90

Atlético Palmaflor creates 86% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 89 away

creates per match

Atlético Palmaflor
1.40
Real Tomayapo
0.88

allows per match

Atlético Palmaflor
0.92
Real Tomayapo
1.94

finishing

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par
Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Palmaflor ↓

Real Tomayapo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Palmaflor or draw
80%
Atlético Palmaflor or Real Tomayapo
76%
Draw or Real Tomayapo
45%

Winning margin

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
30%
Real Tomayapo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
50%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
23%
Real Tomayapo 1+ goals
59%
Real Tomayapo 2+ goals
23%
Real Tomayapo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
73%
Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Palmaflor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Real Tomayapo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.94 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Palmaflor attack 1.40 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Tomayapo attack 0.88 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atlético Palmaflor scores more
55%
level
24%
Real Tomayapo scores more
20%

Atlético Palmaflor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlético Palmaflor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Atlético Palmaflor 0–0 Real Tomayapo

Atlético Palmaflor and Real Tomayapo drew 0-0 in Primera División on June 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario de Villa Tunari in Villa Tunari.