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Real Titánico vs Llanera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Titánico
Real Titánico
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Llanera
Llanera
3/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Real Titánico23%
×Draw24%
Llanera53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Titánico
1.02
Llanera
1.67

Llanera creates 64% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 77 away

creates per match

Real Titánico
1.13
Llanera
1.91

allows per match

Real Titánico
1.43
Llanera
0.92

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par
Llanera+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Llanera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw
47%
Real Titánico or Llanera
76%
Draw or Llanera
77%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+
8%
Llanera wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals
64%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
27%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
8%
Llanera 1+ goals
81%
Llanera 2+ goals
50%
Llanera 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)
31%
Llanera (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Llanera away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.92 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Llanera defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Llanera attack 1.91 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Titánico scores more
23%
level
24%
Llanera scores more
53%

Llanera at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Titánico 0–5 Llanera

Llanera beat Real Titánico 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Pola de Laviana.