Llanera 3–0 Real Titánico: Result & Stats

Llanera

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Titánico

4/25/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Llanera65%

×Draw20%

Real Titánico15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlaneraExpected goals in this matchReal Titánico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.86

Llanera

2.06

Real Titánico

0.86

Llanera creates 140% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 97 away

2.27

creates per match

0.92

0.80

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Llanera

2.27

Real Titánico

0.92

allows per match

Llanera

0.80

Real Titánico

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par

Real Titánico+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

Real Titánico →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Llanera or draw

85%

Llanera or Real Titánico

80%

Draw or Real Titánico

35%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+

41%

Real Titánico wins by 2+

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals

87%

Llanera 2+ goals

61%

Llanera 3+ goals

34%

Real Titánico 1+ goals

58%

Real Titánico 2+ goals

21%

Real Titánico 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)

81%

Real Titánico (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

Real Titánico away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + Real Titánico defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.06

Real Titánico attack 0.92 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Llanera scores more

65%

level

20%

Real Titánico scores more

15%

Llanera at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff