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Real Titánico vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Titánico
Real Titánico
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lenense
Lenense
S. Armayor 34'
V. Carreeno Prieto 27'
9/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Real Titánico45%
×Draw27%
Lenense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Titánico
1.42
Lenense
1.09

Real Titánico creates 30% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 96 away

creates per match

Real Titánico
1.13
Lenense
0.76

allows per match

Real Titánico
1.43
Lenense
1.71

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par
Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Lenense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw
71%
Real Titánico or Lenense
73%
Draw or Lenense
55%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+
21%
Lenense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals
76%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
41%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
17%
Lenense 1+ goals
66%
Lenense 2+ goals
30%
Lenense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)
61%
Lenense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lenense attack 0.76 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Titánico scores more
45%
level
27%
Lenense scores more
29%

Real Titánico at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Titánico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
V. Carreeno Prieto
34'
S. Armayor
Real
Lenense
Daniel Castelao
Manager: Daniel Castelao
Manolo Simón
Manager: Manolo Simón

Match Recap: Real Titánico vs Lenense

Real Titánico and Lenense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 14, 2025.

Goals: V. Carreeno Prieto (27'), S. Armayor (34').

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Laviana.