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Lenense vs Real Titánico — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Lenense
Lenense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Titánico
Real Titánico
M. Gonzalez 88'
P. Paino 58'
1/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio Finstral El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Lenense47%
×Draw25%
Real Titánico27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lenense
1.56
Real Titánico
1.12

Lenense creates 39% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

Lenense
1.27
Real Titánico
0.92

allows per match

Lenense
1.32
Real Titánico
1.84

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par
Real Titánico+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Real Titánico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lenense or draw
73%
Lenense or Real Titánico
75%
Draw or Real Titánico
53%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+
24%
Real Titánico wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals
79%
Lenense 2+ goals
46%
Lenense 3+ goals
21%
Real Titánico 1+ goals
67%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
31%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)
63%
Real Titánico (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Real Titánico away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Real Titánico defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Real Titánico attack 0.92 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lenense scores more
47%
level
25%
Real Titánico scores more
27%

Lenense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
P. Paino
88'
M. Gonzalez
Lenense
Real
Manolo Simón
Manager: Manolo Simón
Daniel Castelao
Manager: Daniel Castelao

Lenense 2 – 0 Real Titánico

Lenense beat Real Titánico 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 25, 2026.

Goals: P. Paino (58'), M. Gonzalez (88').

The match was played at Estadio Finstral El Sotón in Pola de Lena.